Comparing SuperContest Lines with Closing Lines

Comparing SuperContest lines with closing lines where line moves changed the outcomes.

YEAR	WEEK	AWAY	SCORE	HOME	SCORE	SUPER CONTEST HOME LINE	CLOSING HOME LINE	LINE MOVE	SUPERCONTEST WINNER
2016	1	Packers	27	Jaguars	23	5.5	3.5	2
2016	1	Bengals	23	Jets	22	2.5	-1.0	3.5
2016	1	Giants	20	Cowboys	19	1.5	-1.0	2.5
2016	2	Ravens	25	Browns	20	6.5	4.0	2.5
2016	3	Lions	27	Packers	34	-7.5	-6.0	1.5
2016	3	Ravens	19	Jaguars	17	0	2.5	2.5
2016	5	Giants	16	Packers	23	-7.5	0.0	7.5
2016	6	Rams	28	Lions	31	-3.5	3.0	6.5
2016	6	Colts	23	Texans	26	-3	0.0	3	PUSH
2016	8	Jets	31	Browns	28	3	2.5	0.5	PUSH
2016	9	Panthers	13	Rams	10	3	-3.5	6.5	PUSH
2016	9	Bills	25	Seahawks	31	-6.5	-5.5	1
2016	10	Bengals	20	Giants	21	-2	1.0	3
2016	11	Patriots	30	49ers	17	13	10.5	2.5	PUSH
2016	12	Titans	27	Bears	21	4.5	6.5	2
2016	12	Panthers	32	Raiders	35	-3	-3.5	0.5	PUSH
2016	14	Ravens	23	Patriots	30	-7	-6.0	1	PUSH
2016	15	Raiders	19	Chargers	16	3	2.5	0.5	PUSH
2016	16	Bengals	10	Texans	12	-1	-3.0	2
2016	17	Browns	24	Steelers	27	-6	0.0	6

Statistics

Games in 2016	256	100.0%
Games with same lines	67	26.2%
Games with line changes	189	73.8%
Games where line moves did not change the outcome	169	66.0%
Games where line moves changed the outcome	20	7.8%
Line moves same direction as the closing line winner.	72	28.1%
Line moves opposite direction as the closing line winner.	117	45.7%

Where line moves did not change the outcome

YEAR	WEEK	AWAY	SCORE	HOME	SCORE	SUPER CONTEST HOME LINE	CLOSING HOME LINE	LINE MOVE
2016	1	Bears	14	Texans	23	-6	-5.5	0.5
2016	1	Raiders	35	Saints	34	-1.5	-2.5	1
2016	1	Vikings	25	Titans	16	1.5	2.5	1
2016	1	Lions	39	Colts	35	-3.5	-2.5	1
2016	1	Patriots	23	Cardinals	21	-6	-9.0	3
2016	1	Steelers	38	Redskins	16	3	2.5	0.5
2016	2	Jets	37	Bills	31	1	-1.0	2
2016	2	49ers	27	Panthers	46	-13.5	-12.0	1.5
2016	2	Chiefs	12	Texans	19	-3	1.0	4
2016	2	Dolphins	24	Patriots	31	-6.5	-5.5	1
2016	2	Saints	13	Giants	16	-4.5	-3.5	1
2016	2	Bengals	16	Steelers	24	-3.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	2	Cowboys	27	Redskins	23	-2.5	-3.5	1
2016	2	Buccaneers	7	Cardinals	40	-7	-7.5	0.5
2016	2	Seahawks	3	Rams	9	4.5	5.5	1
2016	2	Falcons	35	Raiders	28	-5	-4.0	1
2016	2	Packers	14	Vikings	17	2.5	1.5	1
2016	2	Eagles	29	Bears	14	-3.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	3	Texans	0	Patriots	27	1	0.0	1
2016	3	Cardinals	18	Bills	33	4	5.0	1
2016	3	Vikings	22	Panthers	10	-7	-6.0	1
2016	3	Browns	24	Dolphins	30	-9.5	-10.0	0.5
2016	3	Redskins	29	Giants	27	-4.5	-3.5	1
2016	3	Raiders	17	Titans	10	-1.5	1.5	3
2016	3	49ers	18	Seahawks	37	-9.5	-10.5	1
2016	3	Rams	37	Buccaneers	32	-5.5	-3.5	2
2016	3	Chargers	22	Colts	26	-3	-1.5	1.5
2016	3	Bears	17	Cowboys	31	-7.5	-6.5	1
2016	3	Falcons	45	Saints	32	-3	-2.5	0.5
2016	4	Colts	27	Jaguars	30	2.5	1.0	1.5
2016	4	Panthers	33	Falcons	48	3	2.5	0.5
2016	4	Titans	20	Texans	27	-5	-4.0	1
2016	4	Bills	16	Patriots	0	-5.5	-3.5	2
2016	4	Seahawks	27	Jets	17	2.5	1.0	1.5
2016	4	Broncos	27	Buccaneers	7	3	3.5	0.5
2016	4	Rams	17	Cardinals	13	-8	-3.5	4.5
2016	4	Saints	35	Chargers	34	-4	-3.5	0.5
2016	4	Cowboys	24	49ers	17	2.5	1.0	1.5
2016	4	Chiefs	14	Steelers	43	-5.5	-3.0	2.5
2016	4	Giants	10	Vikings	24	-4.5	-3.5	1
2016	5	Patriots	33	Browns	13	10.5	10.0	0.5
2016	5	Eagles	23	Lions	24	3	3.5	0.5
2016	5	Bears	23	Colts	29	-4.5	-4.0	0.5
2016	5	Titans	30	Dolphins	17	-3.5	-2.5	1
2016	5	Texans	13	Vikings	31	-6.5	-6.0	0.5
2016	5	Jets	13	Steelers	31	-7	-10.0	3
2016	5	Falcons	23	Broncos	16	-5.5	-3.5	2
2016	5	Bengals	14	Cowboys	28	1	2.5	1.5
2016	5	Bills	30	Rams	19	-2	-3.5	1.5
2016	5	Buccaneers	17	Panthers	14	-6.5	-6.0	0.5
2016	6	Bengals	17	Patriots	35	-8.5	-7.5	1
2016	6	Panthers	38	Saints	41	3	2.5	0.5
2016	6	Ravens	23	Giants	27	-3	-3.5	0.5
2016	6	Eagles	20	Redskins	27	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	6	Browns	26	Titans	28	-7	-7.5	0.5
2016	6	Chiefs	26	Raiders	10	0	1.0	1
2016	6	Cowboys	30	Packers	16	-4.5	-5.0	0.5
2016	6	Falcons	24	Seahawks	26	-6.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	6	Jets	3	Cardinals	28	-7.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	7	Giants	17	Rams	10	3	2.5	0.5
2016	7	Browns	17	Bengals	31	-10	-11.0	1
2016	7	Redskins	17	Lions	20	-1.5	1.0	2.5
2016	7	Raiders	33	Jaguars	16	-1	-2.0	1
2016	7	Saints	21	Chiefs	27	-6.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	7	Bills	25	Dolphins	28	3	2.5	0.5
2016	7	Ravens	16	Jets	24	0	-2.5	2.5
2016	7	Vikings	10	Eagles	21	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	7	Colts	34	Titans	26	-2.5	-4.0	1.5
2016	7	Chargers	33	Falcons	30	-6.5	-4.5	2
2016	7	Buccaneers	34	49ers	17	2	-1.0	3
2016	7	Patriots	27	Steelers	16	7	7.5	0.5
2016	7	Seahawks	6	Cardinals	6	-1.5	-2.5	1
2016	7	Texans	9	Broncos	27	-7.5	-8.5	1
2016	8	Patriots	41	Bills	25	6.5	5.5	1
2016	8	Lions	13	Texans	20	-2.5	-1.0	1.5
2016	8	Chiefs	30	Colts	14	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	8	Seahawks	20	Saints	25	2.5	1.0	1.5
2016	8	Raiders	30	Buccaneers	24	-1.5	-1.0	0.5
2016	8	Chargers	19	Broncos	27	-5.5	-3.5	2
2016	8	Cardinals	20	Panthers	30	-3	-2.5	0.5
2016	8	Eagles	23	Cowboys	29	-4.5	-5.0	0.5
2016	8	Vikings	10	Bears	20	6	4.5	1.5
2016	9	Falcons	43	Buccaneers	28	4	4.5	0.5
2016	9	Steelers	14	Ravens	21	0	3.5	3.5
2016	9	Lions	22	Vikings	16	-5.5	-4.5	1
2016	9	Eagles	23	Giants	28	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	9	Saints	41	49ers	23	3.5	5.0	1.5
2016	9	Titans	35	Chargers	43	-5	-3.5	1.5
2016	9	Broncos	20	Raiders	30	0	-1.0	1
2016	10	Browns	7	Ravens	28	-9.5	-7.5	2
2016	10	Texans	24	Jaguars	21	1.5	-3.0	4.5
2016	10	Broncos	25	Saints	23	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	10	Rams	9	Jets	6	-1.5	1.0	2.5
2016	10	Falcons	15	Eagles	24	0	-2.0	2
2016	10	Bears	10	Buccaneers	36	0	2.5	2.5
2016	10	Packers	25	Titans	47	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	10	Vikings	20	Redskins	26	-3	-2.5	0.5
2016	10	Cowboys	35	Steelers	30	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	11	Jaguars	19	Lions	26	-6.5	-5.5	1
2016	11	Buccaneers	19	Chiefs	17	-7.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	11	Cardinals	24	Vikings	30	0	-2.0	2
2016	11	Bears	16	Giants	22	-7.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	11	Dolphins	14	Rams	10	2.5	-1.0	3.5
2016	11	Packers	24	Redskins	42	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	11	Texans	20	Raiders	27	-5.5	-6.5	1
2016	12	Vikings	13	Lions	16	-2.5	-1.5	1
2016	12	Redskins	26	Cowboys	31	-7	-5.5	1.5
2016	12	Bengals	14	Ravens	19	-4	-3.5	0.5
2016	12	Jaguars	21	Bills	28	-7.5	-8.5	1
2016	12	Giants	27	Browns	13	7	6.5	0.5
2016	12	Chargers	21	Texans	13	1.5	2.5	1
2016	12	Rams	21	Saints	49	-7	-8.0	1
2016	12	Seahawks	5	Buccaneers	14	6	5.0	1
2016	12	Patriots	22	Jets	17	8	8.5	0.5
2016	13	Chiefs	29	Falcons	28	-4	-5.0	1
2016	13	Dolphins	6	Ravens	38	-3	-3.5	0.5
2016	13	49ers	6	Bears	26	-1	0.0	1
2016	13	Eagles	14	Bengals	32	0	-2.0	2
2016	13	Broncos	20	Jaguars	10	4	3.5	0.5
2016	13	Rams	10	Patriots	26	-13.5	-13.0	0.5
2016	13	Lions	28	Saints	13	-6	-6.5	0.5
2016	13	Panthers	7	Seahawks	40	-6.5	-8.0	1.5
2016	13	Colts	41	Jets	10	2	-1.0	3
2016	14	Raiders	13	Chiefs	21	-3	-3.5	0.5
2016	14	Steelers	27	Bills	20	1.5	1.0	0.5
2016	14	Chargers	16	Panthers	28	-1.5	-1.0	0.5
2016	14	Bengals	23	Browns	10	5.5	4.5	1
2016	14	Texans	22	Colts	17	-6	-6.5	0.5
2016	14	Cardinals	23	Dolphins	26	-1	2.0	3
2016	14	Redskins	27	Eagles	22	1	2.0	1
2016	14	Saints	11	Buccaneers	16	-2.5	-2.0	0.5
2016	14	Broncos	10	Titans	13	-1	-2.0	1
2016	14	Jets	23	49ers	17	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	14	Seahawks	10	Packers	38	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	14	Falcons	42	Rams	14	6	-1.0	7
2016	14	Cowboys	7	Giants	10	3	3.5	0.5
2016	15	Rams	3	Seahawks	24	-16	-15.0	1
2016	15	Eagles	26	Ravens	27	-5.5	-5.0	0.5
2016	15	Browns	13	Bills	33	-10	-10.5	0.5
2016	15	Packers	30	Bears	27	6.5	4.5	2
2016	15	Buccaneers	20	Cowboys	26	-6.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	15	Jaguars	20	Texans	21	-6	-3.5	2.5
2016	15	Titans	19	Chiefs	17	-5	-6.0	1
2016	15	Colts	34	Vikings	6	-4.5	-5.0	0.5
2016	15	Saints	48	Cardinals	41	-2.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	15	Patriots	16	Broncos	3	3.5	3.0	0.5
2016	15	Panthers	26	Redskins	15	-6.5	-7.0	0.5
2016	16	Giants	19	Eagles	24	2.5	-1.5	4
2016	16	Dolphins	34	Bills	31	-3.5	-4.5	1
2016	16	Falcons	33	Panthers	16	2.5	3.0	0.5
2016	16	Chargers	17	Browns	20	6	4.5	1.5
2016	16	Vikings	25	Packers	38	-6.5	-6.0	0.5
2016	16	Titans	17	Jaguars	38	5	4.0	1
2016	16	Jets	3	Patriots	41	-16.5	-17.0	0.5
2016	16	49ers	22	Rams	21	-3.5	-6.0	2.5
2016	16	Cardinals	34	Seahawks	31	-7.5	-9.0	1.5
2016	16	Lions	21	Cowboys	42	-7	-6.5	0.5
2016	17	Saints	32	Falcons	38	-6.5	-7.5	1
2016	17	Ravens	10	Bengals	27	-2	2.5	4.5
2016	17	Panthers	16	Buccaneers	17	-6	-3.0	3
2016	17	Texans	17	Titans	24	-3.5	-3.0	0.5
2016	17	Giants	19	Redskins	10	-7.5	-9.0	1.5
2016	17	Jaguars	20	Colts	24	-4.5	-5.5	1
2016	17	Patriots	35	Dolphins	14	9.5	7.5	2
2016	17	Bears	10	Vikings	38	-5	-6.0	1
2016	17	Cowboys	13	Eagles	27	-4	-6.5	2.5
2016	17	Cardinals	44	Rams	6	6	5.5	0.5
2016	17	Chiefs	37	Chargers	27	6	5.5	0.5
2016	17	Seahawks	25	49ers	23	9.5	11.5	2